Iran owes the U.S. a debt of thanks

The U.S. did Iran a big favour by removing not one but two regimes that had been a constant security threat to Iran. Iran never had to lift a finger whilst the U.S. did their work for them--beautiful!

I imagine that Iran's policy of supporting the insurgency will parallel that of their support of Kurds in Northern Iraq over decades. That is simply to act as a distracting thorn in the side of Iraq and now more importantly, the U.S.

Specifically, I believe Iran will carefully regulate the flow of support to Iraq insurgents so that neither ever obtains a clear advantage and by doing so keep the U.S. and Iraq trapped in sectarian violence as long as possible. It's not in Iran's strategic interest to see this resolved quickly--distraction is key.

In that sense perhaps there is a strategic advantage to the U.S. engineering a withdrawal as soon as practical and in the process drawing the Iranians into openly broadening their support for the insurgency in Iraq. This could facilitate U.N. support as Iran's intentions to control the peninsula would be in public evidence and likely pave the way for U.N. approval for "proactive" measures against Iran rather than the toothless resolutions currently in place.

This would remove the U.S. from the spotlight whilst providing it with a cloak of authenticity. Additionally, it would act as a denial of service attack on both Russia and China's investment interests in Iran.

At best it could aid Iranian public opinion for regime softening in Iran because it will be seen as a U.N. action rather than a U.S. action. In other words it neutralizes one of Iran's primary propaganda weapons--anti-Americanism.

In reality it could be enough to bring the Iranians back to the table for "real" talks which this time would occur under UN auspices and an opportunity for Iran to try to broaden the diplomatic agenda to address mutual security concerns rather than the piecemeal diplomacy that has occurred so far. This is to Iran's advantage more than the current Bush administration's advantage but I believe is better for U.S. interests in the long run.

As far as Iraq is concerned well it's already a basket case. In that regard the U.S. should make efforts to be there when Iraq decides it's sick of the bloodshed and ready to re-join the world.

Strategically, then perhaps Iran is the better containment option for the peninsula than Iraq in both the short term and the long.

In conclusion, Bush's Plan B may just be a short-term containment option paving the way for a withdrawal. An "augmentation" of troops in Baghdad may permit the U.S. to create the perception of law and order just long enough to withdraw their troops and sucker Iran into broadening it's involvement in Iraq.

Perhaps this is the U.S. plan after-all.