Iraq Surge: What if Congress says "No"

Well there appears to be a couple of resolutions doing the rounds at the moment and none of them look promising for the Bush Administration so where is this going to leave Bush, the United States and more importantly the Iraqis?

I wonder if there is any benefit in sounding out the U.N. for involvement as peace keepers deployed in the less conflicted areas of Iraq. If the U.N appeared agreeable in principle then Bush could re-lobby congress for an advance of 20,000 troops as a sign of good faith until the Blue Helmets can get on the ground. For Congress this would be their light at the end of the tunnel.

Feeding Blue Helmets into the low or non-conflict areas of Iraq would allow the relieved U.S. troops to be withdrawn and re-deployed for the calming of Baghdad as well as the start of overall withdrawal of some of these troops if U.N. replacement numbers permitted. Again a light at the end of the tunnel for both American's and the people of Iraq and the peninsula in general as well as an opportunity for Petraeus to work his magic.

Troops withdrawals don't have to be huge it just has to be a start-- a PR goodwill gesture to let everyone concerned know that the end of the tunnel is in sight. Headlines read: "Our troops coming home" --ticker tape parade stuff. Everyone heaves a sigh of relief.

The deployment of the U.N. peace keepers combined with the start of U.S. withdrawal may be the type of conciliatory gesture needed to coax Iran back to the table for talks on stemming the Iraqi insurgency. I think they'd want to keep these talks under the counter and simple by leaving the whole nuclear thing off the table until the changing of the guard in Washington and a new centrist govt. Democrat or Republican can openly negotiate a new way forward with Iran.

The problems with the U.N. solution is largely how does this get spun in such a way that the President doesn't look like he's having to eat crow. This is no small matter and is of prime concern to many on the Hill as they try and decide the best course of action on Bush's latest plan. Unfortunately, there is no way to embarrass the President without embarrassing the presidency and the U.S as a whole so any solution has to take this into account.

Another problem is that Iran would be unhappy about having to sit with U.N. sanctions for the next 18 months waiting for guard change in Washington and the start of meaningful talks so perhaps Washington, Iran and the U.N could agree to having the Russians run a "hear no evil see no evil" monitoring team on the ground in Iran permitting a slackening of the sanction's noose.

The other problem of course is making sure that Israel doesn't run any interference on the process by doing something rash or preemptive against Iran.

Of course the hardest part would be convincing everyone that this was the President's plan all along.