Middle East has all the ingredients for regional conflict

I have noticed the recent attempts by the UN Refugee Agency (UNCHR) to get camps going again for refugees. This is a very bad sign as it indicates a worsening situation. Additionally, as previous history has shown both in Lebanon, Afghanistan and Pakistan these refugee warehouses act like fast breeder reactors for terrorists.

Saudi Arabia has already committed 7 billion dollars to building a containment fence along its entire border with Iraq to keep refugees out. One member of Saudi government has intimated that they will intervene massively to prevent a Sunni bloodshed.

Kurdistan is already talking about annexing Kirkuk and a refugee crisis for them is likely to spark tensions and more calls for independence. This will upset the Turks and the Iranians both of whom have been running limited military forays into Iraq in recent months with Turkey threatening a hardened military response against the PKK.

Jordan and Syria have seen their populations increase by 10-12% respectively through the influx of refugees. For perspective imagine Australia taking on 2 million refugees in one hit and imagine how we'd cope. It has nearly doubled their inflation. These refugees have been largely middle class and have paid their way but it still has a significant affect on religious and economic demographics which in itself can give birth to domestic militancy.

European countries are having their own problems with Sweden taking some 2000 Iraqis and Germany expelling many political refugees from Saddam's era.

Troop numbers alone to administer the camps are estimated at 70,000. Without appropriate security the spillover affects are almost guaranteed to create further conflict as insurgents use the camps as bases, training areas etc. to run cross border raids which ultimately promotes a state response which can anger another country which gets involved as today's media reports below illustrate.

Turkey Turns up the Heat in Northern Iraq threatening air strikes against PKK terrorist camps located in Iraq which it says the U.S has done nothing to clean out since it's invasion of Iraq 3 years ago.

In response Iraq president Talabani warns Turkey and Iran "expressed his anger over neighbors Iran and Turkey for interfering in Iraq's domestic affairs, warning Baghdad could reciprocate."

All the ingredients for a regional conflict are now on the table.